…Our esteemed board member FS from Hong Kong and China is happy to announce their brand-new website; www.fschina.com is in the air!

…Here is the regular market update from our friend Steven Yuan from FS Shanghai:

European and Mediterranean Routes: This week, the supply and demand relationship in the European and Mediterranean markets remained balanced, with freight rates maintaining high and stable fluctuations. The European route freight index rose by 0.7% compared to last week; the East Mediterranean route freight index fell by 0.7% compared to last week; and the West Mediterranean route freight index fell by 1.0% compared to last week.

North American Routes: The freight rates on the East Coast of the United States remained stable, while the tightness in the West Coast market eased with the introduction of new capacity, leading to a slight decline in freight rates. The East Coast route freight index was almost flat, rising by 0.01% compared to last week; the West Coast route freight index fell by 2.3% compared to last week. Notably, according to NCFI's historical records, the highest points on the West Coast were during the pandemic, reaching 5082.47 points on February 18, 2022, and 5082.72 points on March 25, 2022. As previously mentioned, the rate of increase during this Red Sea crisis exceeded that of the pandemic period, reaching 4857.03 on June 28, 2024, which is 95.6% of the pandemic peak.

Middle East Routes: Market transport demand has noticeably declined, and liner companies continue to lower freight rates to attract cargo. The Middle East route index fell by 4.4% compared to last week. Additionally, the India-Pakistan routes experienced significant fluctuations: Liner companies temporarily added some capacity, making the route's available space sufficient, and this week the spot market booking prices continued to decline. The India-Pakistan route freight index fell by 10.6% compared to last week.

…A brief report on the Transpac trade from our friends from JANEL Group in the USA: As additional loaders began operating and forward-looking indicators suggested a decline in demand, the pace of rate increases has temporarily slowed. It is anticipated that these new loaders will help stabilize the market and provide some relief in the spot market.

…Sliding container rates and massive deliveries stir downturn fears. Risks previously brushed aside by investors have resurfaced as foreground concerns. Morgan Stanley warns of a ‘long winter’ ahead for carriers amid retreating freight rates. Market sentiment has undergone a dramatic reversal in the past few weeks, shifting from expectations of replicating the lockdown-era peaks to now anticipating a looming downturn.

…FMC calls for more information from Gemini partners. Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd expect no impact from the call for further information. The Gemini Cooperation is not due to launch operationally until 2025. But clearance by the US regulator has been delayed until further information is provided.

…MSC's standalone Asia-North Europe services capture 9% market share. This indicates how advanced the Geneva-headquartered carrier is for life outside its 2M partnership with Maersk, which is set to formally end in February. Assuming US Federal Maritime Commission (FMC) approval is granted, Maersk will form the Gemini Cooperation with German carrier Hapag-Lloyd.

…Intra-Asia services suffering as smaller box ships are diverted to long-haul trades. The cascading of smaller box ships to more-lucrative long-haul lanes has created a shortage of vessels for intra-Asia trades. Almost all large containerships have been chartered until 2025, causing liner and feeder operators to turn their attention to smaller vessels, whose owners are seeking to lock in higher rates for longer periods.

…Container rates in ‘doom loop’ and ‘bubble’ amid strong US imports. US freight economist warns 2025 could be ‘craziest year ever’ if Trump tariffs ensue. Asia-US west coast spot rates are now on par with Covid-era peaks, despite US import demand following expected growth patterns. Presidential politics could add further rate fuel in 2025, if Donald Trump wins and goes ahead with proposed tariffs, sparking a massive pull-forward of demand.

…Bad weather hits alternative routing around Cape of Good Hope. Vessels idle to avoid dangerous conditions off South Africa as bulker runs aground. Going south of Africa has become the default option for shipping avoiding the Red Sea. But even this comes with its own set of risks.

…CMA CGM linked to $2.6bn containership newbuilding contract. France’s CMA CGM is said to be the owner behind a new order placed in South Korea for 12 new containerships. KSOE subsidiaries HD Hyundai HI and HD Hyundai Samho will each build six LNG dual-fuel boxships, with delivery during 2028.

…The Olympic Games are being held in Paris this summer, running from July 26 through September 8. The influx of tourist activity and the establishment of security measures are expected to cause disruption, congestion, and delays to shipments into and out of France during this period.

…Hapag-Lloyd lifts outlook again on stronger earnings. Strong demand and increased rates exceed expectations. The Red Sea crisis continues to change the outlook for container lines. Hapag-Lloyd forecasts it could earn as much as $2.4bn for the full year.

…X-Press Feeders kicks off green methanol Baltic service. First of 14 new 1,200 teu containerships to set sail from Rotterdam on July 16. X-Press Feeders’ first dual-fuel methanol ship will connect Rotterdam and Antwerp with Finland and Estonia.

…Can Saudi Arabia become a premier tourist hotspot? It has sun, sea, and (lots of) sand. But people are wary of visiting the kingdom. Tourism is a key part of Vision 2030, an economic-reform plan announced in 2016. Muhammad bin Salman (MBS), the crown prince and de facto ruler, is the driving force behind the strategy, which is designed to promote new industries, create jobs, and eventually wean the economy off oil. MBS sees Vision 2030 as a way to improve the country’s image—and his own.

…Trump survives assassination attempt at campaign rally, as it unfolded. The attack on Donald Trump unleashes a flood of misinformation. The left thinks the shooting was just a performance; the right sees an inside job. Will the truth matter? In the initial hours after the shocking assassination attempt against Donald Trump on Saturday evening, meme-makers and influencers on the left and right came to fast agreement about one thing: the shooting must have been orchestrated.

…Biden survived his “big boy” press conference. His performance wasn’t perfect, and the Democratic Party rebellion is far from over.

…Spain beat England 2-1 to lift its fourth European football title as England lose its second consecutive Euro finals. Spain is the king of European football for a record fourth time. Spain’s footballers, cream of the Euros, reflect a changed nation. Sport can express fierce rivalries—but it can also heal.

Enjoy the rest of the week!